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Oil prices slipped to near $71 a barrel Friday as the crude market took a breather from its recent daily gains. But the mood remained bullish as investors eyed signs that the global recession may be easing.

Benchmark crude for July delivery fell $1.60 to $71.08 a barrel by afternoon European time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. On Thursday, it rose $1.35 to settle at $72.68, the highest since October.

Reflecting expectations of continued global economic weakness, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries forecast Friday that demand for its crude this year would average 28.6 million barrels a day – 2.2 million barrels less than in 2008.

Still there are some signs of a turnaround.
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OIL prices climbed above US$69 (S$99.60) a barrel on Friday in Asia as the first drop in US unemployment claims in five months provided another sign that weak demand for crude could improve.

Benchmark crude oil for July delivery was up 62 cents at US$69.43 a barrel midday in Bangkok in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX). On Thursday the contract shot up US$2.69 to settle at US$68.81 after trading as high as US$69.60.

Oil prices have rallied for three months in tandem with global stock markets, and they soared this week to their highest levels since November, though the rally was briefly interrupted Wednesday by a jump in US crude inventories.
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NYMEX

Energy prices tumbled after the US Federal Reserve predicted that, even if the worst of the recession is over, the US economy will continue to shrink this year.

Benchmark crude for July delivery fell 99 cents to settle at $US61.05 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices at one point had fallen to a within a cent of $US60.

In London, Brent crude fell 66 cents to settle at $US59.93 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange.
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Oil prices have risen to their highest level in six months. US crude rose as high as $60.08 a barrel before falling back, while London Brent crude rose to $58.64.

The price of US crude is now up by about 80% from a January low of $32.70 a barrel, but is well below the record high above $147 hit in July last year.

Oil has risen in response to a global rebound in stocks.

Weakness in the dollar has also spurred the oil price, which tends to rise when the dollar falls. The dollar hit a four-month low against a basket of currencies on Tuesday.
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OIL prices edged up in early Asian trade on Tuesday, with the market continuing to be volatile, dealers said.

New York’s main futures contract, light sweet crude for May delivery, rose four cents to US$51.09 (S$77.10) a barrel.

Brent North Sea crude for May gained six cents to US$52.30.

‘The oil market seems to be linking itself to the equities market… some lead strengthening seems to be pushing the (oil) market up,’ said David Johnson, an oil analyst with Macquarie Securities in Hong Kong.

But prices dropped more than a dollar on Monday, and some analysts cautioned that trade would remain volatile in the face of the global slowdown and softer demand.

‘Traders are certainly realising that we are not out of the woods on the demand side, and that perhaps the optimism that was shown over the last few days was a little bit premature,’ said Bart Melek of BMO Capital Markets.

The worldwide slump has cut energy demand, with prices far off their record peaks above US$147 last July. — AFP, StraitsTimes

In recent weeks, as oil traded around $40 a barrel, the conventional wisdom among specialists was that the price decline that began last summer was largely over. Amid production cuts by the OPEC cartel, oil had apparently found a floor that would last until the global economy rebounded.

But a growing chorus of analysts and economists is questioning that notion. While theirs is a minority view, they see troubling conditions in the oil market that could still push prices down sharply — and a global economy that is getting worse, not better. Some are predicting that oil could fall to $20 a barrel and stay low for years.
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The price of crude oil means the spot price of either WTI/Light Crude as traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) for delivery in Cushing, Oklahoma, or of Brent as traded on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE, into which the International Petroleum Exchange has been incorporated) for delivery at Sullom Voe. The price of a barrel of oil is highly dependent on both its grade, determined by factors such as its specific gravity or API and its sulphur content, and its location. The vast majority of oil is not traded on an exchange but on an over-the-counter basis, typically with reference to a marker crude oil grade that is typically quoted via pricing agencies such as Argus Media Ltd and Platts. Other important benchmarks include Dubai, Tapis, and the OPEC basket. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) uses the Imported Refiner Acquisition Cost, the weighted average cost of all oil imported into the US, as its “world oil price”. Read more »

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