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There are many companies who will seek to buy the crude oil that is drilled. For these companies the crude oil future is one which is very important to gauge. Without having a proper analysis of the numerous industries who use this fuel source the oil importing companies will not have any idea about the amount of crude oil they should consider importing.

The crude oil future will need to be given much thought as the production count is measured in the amount of oil barrels which are filled. These oil barrels are the measurement amount for knowing the way that the oil should be distributed. With this knowledge the many governments can negotiate the price to pay for their share of the crude oil.

This however does not guarantee the crude oil future as with so many oil spills on land and the oceans there are some countries which are considering other ways of finding the crude oil they require. There is also the other problem of various countries needing the byproducts of the crude oil rather than the crude oil itself. This situation makes the crude oil future very hard to predict.

On the one hand the crude oil is not needed as other fuel sources are found and used. Yet as these new fuel sources are the byproducts of crude oil itself, there is a confusion to be found. It is this uncertain atmosphere which hinders the ability of knowing what the crude oil future is like.

To help the customers out perhaps the governments should find a way of locating and refining the oil at the same processing plant. This step would lower the costs the companies and governments need to pay. This is yet another solution to the crude oil future uncertainty.

Crude oil in all of its many forms whether it is refined or not is a commodity which is sorely needed. You can use the price range as a way of seeing the crude oil future. When the oil prices are high it means there is a demand for crude oil and the low prices mean a drop on the crude oil demand.

Author : Muna wa Wanjiru

Schlumberger Ltd., the world’s largest oilfield services outfit, said Friday it eliminated another 100 jobs this week in North America. Smaller rivals Halliburton Co. and Baker Hughes Inc. also said they had reduced positions, but neither provided specific numbers.

The three companies combined have cut about 10,000 jobs already this year. Oilfield service companies have had to adapt to far lower spending by many oil and gas producers, which hire service providers for seismic work, reservoir management and other oilfield tasks.

Oil prices have risen about 35 percent since the start of May, and the number of rigs exploring for oil and natural gas in the U.S. rose this week for only the second time this year. But energy demand remains weak, and the number of rigs working in the U.S. is down by more than 1,000 from a year ago.

In a statement, Schlumberger said it also has reduced or eliminated overtime, adjusted recruiting targets and released some contractors to help manage the downturn.

“We will continue to review our position as market needs develop,” said the company, whose principal offices are in Houston, Paris and The Hague.

Halliburton said its reductions took place in Duncan, Okla. The company, which has corporate offices in Houston and Dubai, said it has frozen annual salary adjustments and also cut pay for executives.

Gene Schiels, a spokesman for Houston-based Baker Hughes, said that the company continues to monitor activity and “will make adjustments accordingly.”

In trading Friday, Schlumberger shares fell 71 cents to $55.04, Baker Hughes shares fell 59 cents to $37.33 and Halliburton shares declined 32 cents to $21.20.
—AP

Benchmark crude for July delivery fell $1.60 to $71.08 a barrel by afternoon European time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. On Thursday, it rose $1.35 to settle at $72.68, the highest since October.

Reflecting expectations of continued global economic weakness, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries forecast Friday that demand for its crude this year would average 28.6 million barrels a day – 2.2 million barrels less than in 2008.

Still there are some signs of a turnaround.

On Thursday, the International Energy Agency said in its monthly survey that global oil demand would fall by 2.9 per cent this year, slightly better than its May forecast of a 3 per cent fall.

It was the organization’s first upward revision to its forecasts in 10 months.

“Oil prices are discounting positive economic growth by around the end of the third quarter,” said Christoffer Molke-Leth, head of sales trading for Saxo Capital Markets in Singapore. “If that doesn’t happen, prices at this level are overbought.”

Prices have more than doubled since March on hopes

Benchmark crude oil for July delivery was up 62 cents at US$69.43 a barrel midday in Bangkok in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX). On Thursday the contract shot up US$2.69 to settle at US$68.81 after trading as high as US$69.60.

Oil prices have rallied for three months in tandem with global stock markets, and they soared this week to their highest levels since November, though the rally was briefly interrupted Wednesday by a jump in US crude inventories.

Crude now fetches nearly twice its February price, on expectations that the dismal US economy could be stabilising and as some investors scoop up oil and other commodities as a hedge against a weak dollar.

The latest reading on the US economy showed a drop in the number of Americans on the unemployment insurance, albeit slightly, for the first time in 20 weeks. That augured well for Friday’s closely watched jobs report.

The price of crude is likely to continue rallying even though its rise belies weak economic fundamentals that will keep demand for gasoline subdued, analysts say.

‘There is room for the market to go higher,’ said Mr Jonathan Kornafel, Asia director for market maker Hudson Capital Energy in Singapore. ‘We could certainly see oil between US$75 to US$80 by the end of the year.’ Hedge funds and other investors have piled into commodities like oil as the dollar weakens on expectations that inflation will be one of the outcomes of the US government’s massive stimulus spending, he said.

Weakness in the dollar tends to push oil prices higher since the benchmark contract is traded in the US currency.

Goldman Sachs on Thursday boosted its forecast for crude based on expectations that the economy will stabilise and Opec production cuts will shrink global supplies. It now expects oil to cost US$85 a barrel by the end of the year, up from its previous estimate of US$65 a barrel.

In other Nymex trading, gasoline for July delivery rose 2.1 cents to US$1.98 a gallon and heating oil gained 1.8 cents to $1.80 a gallon. Natural gas for July delivery was up 0.6 cents at US$3.816 per 1,000 cubic feet. In London, Brent prices rose 45 cents to US$69.16 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange. — AP, The Straits Times

Energy prices tumbled after the US Federal Reserve predicted that, even if the worst of the recession is over, the US economy will continue to shrink this year.

Benchmark crude for July delivery fell 99 cents to settle at $US61.05 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices at one point had fallen to a within a cent of $US60.

In London, Brent crude fell 66 cents to settle at $US59.93 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange.

The economy has pushed energy prices down because consumers and businesses have reduced spending, whether it’s on commuting to work or producing goods.

On Thursday, energy prices fell further after the US Labor Department reported that there are nearly 6.7 million people filing for unemployment benefits, the highest total on records dating to 1967.

In other Nymex trading, gasoline for June delivery fell less than a cent to settle at $US1.7997 a gallon and heating oil dropped 1.17 cents to settle at $US1.5411 a gallon. Natural gas for June delivery slid 37.2 cents to settle at $US3.726 per 1,000 cubic feet.

COMEX

Gold prices jumped, rising above $US950 an ounce for the first time in two months, as the dollar lost more ground against other currencies.

Gold for June delivery jumped $US13.80 to settle at $US951.20 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The last time the precious metal closed above $950 an ounce was March 23.

Other metals were mixed. July silver rose 16.5 cents to $US14.4450 an ounce, while July copper futures slipped 5.55 cents to $US2.0510 a pound.
–smh.com.au

The price of US crude is now up by about 80% from a January low of $32.70 a barrel, but is well below the record high above $147 hit in July last year.

Oil has risen in response to a global rebound in stocks.

Weakness in the dollar has also spurred the oil price, which tends to rise when the dollar falls. The dollar hit a four-month low against a basket of currencies on Tuesday.

“The feeling is we’ve seen the worst of it, and the only way now is up,” said Gerard Rigby, an energy analyst with Fuel First Consulting in Sydney.

However, despite the optimism there is so far scant evidence that demand for oil is recovering.

Oil supply is also ample. There is an estimated 100 million barrels of crude oil stored at sea on tankers and US crude inventories are at their highest in 19 years.

But the recent stock market rally has sparked hopes that the world economy is recovering and thus investors are betting that demand for oil will recover soon.
–BBC

Benchmark crude for June delivery slipped 22 cents to settle at US$49.92 (S$74.74) a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract Monday fell US$1.41 to settle at US$50.14.

Swine flu has killed more than 150 people in Mexico and number of countries reporting cases has spread to Europe, the Middle East and Asia. At least 60 cases have been identified in the US, but no deaths.

Fears of pandemics have slowed the global economy in the past and officials with the World Health Organization, while raising alert levels on Monday, warned against overreacting.

On Tuesday, countries, including Canada, Israel and France, warned against any nonessential travel to Mexico.

‘Border controls do not work. Travel restrictions do not work,’ WHO spokesman Gregory Hartl told reporters on Tuesday in Geneva, recalling the 2003 Sars epidemic that killed 774 people, mostly in Asia, and slowed the global economy. ‘There was much more economic disruption caused by these measures than there was public health benefit.’

A global economic downturn has already led to a severe tumble in crude prices. A barrel of oil cost about US$100 less than a year ago.

The fear is that the outbreak could discourage people from travelling, lead to closed factories and further hurt the economy and oil consumption, said Addison Armstrong of Tradition Energy.

Prices bounced off lows of US$48.55 on Tuesday on news that consumer confidence is moving higher. But gains this year have been weighed down by the amount of unused oil in storage, which have reached 19-year highs.

That trend is expected to continue when the government reports crude in storage on Wednesday. — AP

Benchmark crude for May delivery fell 91 cents to $49.42 a barrel by midday in Singapore in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract Friday rose 35 cents to settle at $50.33.

Oil prices have played peek-a-boo with $50 a barrel this month after dropping below $35 in February as investors struggle to decipher how the economy will perform in the second half.

Stock markets have jumped more than 20 per cent in the last six weeks on expectations that massive global stimulus packages will spark a recovery by the end of the year.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which next meets on May 28, has announced output quota reductions of 4.2 million barrels a day since September.

‘A key support is coming from expectations that OPEC is going to try to match the slowdown in crude demand by cutting supply,’ said Mr Mark Pervan, senior commodity strategist with ANZ Bank in Melbourne. ‘OPEC doesn’t want to cut production, so they may just talk up tightening compliance at the next meeting.’

Mr Pervan expects oil prices to dip to between $40 and $45 a barrel in September before rising to near $55 by the end of the year.

‘People are going to be disillusioned in the near term,’ Mr Pervan said. ‘We see the global economy not looking at all pretty until the second half of next year.’

In other Nymex trading, gasoline for May delivery fell 2.51 cents to $1.47 a gallon and heating oil fell 1.06 cents to $1.41 a gallon.

Natural gas for May delivery slid 3.9 cents to $3.69 per 1,000 cubic feet.

In London, Brent prices fell 78 cents to $52.57 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange.
– AP, The Straits Times

New York’s main futures contract, light sweet crude for May delivery, shed 46 cents to US$51.78 (S$78.44) a barrel.

Brent North Sea crude for delivery in May fell 11 cents to US$53.95.

The contract for May delivery will expire Wednesday.

Oil and stock markets were closed on Friday for the Easter weekend holiday.

‘After a strong finish, we now see a bit of profit-taking. After all, it remains uncertain whether we have reached a bottom on the fundamentals of oil,’ said Victor Shum, senior principal of energy consultants Purvin and Gertz in Singapore.

Crude oil prices were boosted on Thursday by a strong Wall Street rally ahead of the Easter holidays due to US banking giant Wells Fargo’s projection of a ‘record’ US$3-billion profit in the first quarter, which sent shares of major banks soaring.

The rally might carry forward to this week, when earnings reports of other banks are due to be released, added Shum.

‘If the (earnings reports) are like Wells Fargo’s, that will continue to provide some positive news for the oil market,’ he said.

Oil prices have nosedived after hitting a peak of US$147 dollars in July last year due to the global financial crisis which is seen as dampening demand for energy.

Iran’s Oil Minister Gholam Hossein Nozari said the country favoured a global oil price of ‘US$75 to US$80′ a barrel, the state television website reported on Sunday.

‘From the point of view of the Islamic republic, the favourable oil price is US$75 to US$80,’ the minister was quoted as saying.

Iran is the second largest crude producing member of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) which pumps 40 per cent of the world’s oil. — AFP, StraitsTimes